The world will not be the same following the January 25, 2010 events in Egypt. A confluence of circumstances has heralded a new reality -"The future ain't going to be what it used to be." It is trite to state that this revolution has evoked profound political changes in Egypt, the whole region and even the world. The thought provoking fact is how the internet has forever changed the political landscape and how politicians will behave and communicate. In this day and age of 24 hour news channels, tweets, blogs, texts, Facebook and everyone with a cellphone attached to their ears it is almost impossible to even write a piece such as this as the world will have altered before it is finished.
THE OLD EGYPT
The undisputed fact is that for the past 30 years there has been a totalitarian regime in Egypt. All opposition has been marginalized, more often than not, brutally. For most of this period the USA and the Western democracies have ignored this reality in the knowledge that Mubarak's Egypt is the largest Arab country with a powerful military, an ally against terrorism and in the "Middle East Peace Process". This compliance comes with a $1.3 billion price tag. All bets are now off as the popular uprising in Egypt is for open Government, against poverty and corruption- all values that the West purports to represent. Also the focus of the crowd's invective had been the very Mubarak whom the West initially seemed anxious not to abandon. Concessions, undreamed of before, failed to placate the reformers. Also it was evident that the much vaunted military were reluctant to fire on the masses.
THE NEW INSTABILITY
This is not the first uprising in the "Middle East" in the recent past. Iran brutally crushed theirs and their response to this recent Egyptian scare is the hanging of 73 opposition leaders. Tunisia's popular uprising has been a change of government and was said to be one of the spurs to the Egyptian rebellion. Now the hereditary King Abdullah of Jordan has axed his whole appointed cabinet in order to better meet his society's needs. Regardless of the outcomes of these citizen mobilizations the obvious question is why now? Initially, at least, it appears that the access to the internet, cell phones and texting where large numbers of fellow travelers can connect. The advent of modern technology has made censorship almost impossible and the scenes of the cheering, flag waving mobs dominating the news waves cannot be too reassuring to totalitarian regimes.
The Google executive and blogger, Wael Ghonim, is credited with setting up the page on the Facebook social network that helped galvanise protesters. Ghonim stated that his central message was that it was better to die with dignity than to live in shame. He is also was convinced that after the Tunisian coupe Mubarak would go. Ghonim's release from detention further reenergized the protesters. Each day the crowds grew and Alexandra and Suez were also having daily growing numbers of revolutionaries in the streets. Ghonim tweets daily and definitely reflects the pulse of Egypt.
It is still hard to fathom how this sweeping movement has not galvanized around a single leader or group. Also the peaceful nature of the protest usually needs a Ghandi or a Mandela to inspire it. Ironically, the one contribution Mubarak has made to a peaceful succession to a new order is by appointing, the ostensibly apolitical, Army Higher Council in charge of what has to be an interim government. The Military is the one entity that has retained the respect and support of both the establishment and the crowds. On the one hand they protected government establishment and even Mubarak while on the other they managed to maintain the light hearted support of the masses.
THE IMPACT
While the impact on the other Arab countries will depend on the local situations there are two other countries that have more than a passing interest in the outcome in Egypt. Israel who, for the most part have been silently watching and the USA who have been actively participating. With regard to the latter, whose foreign policy is based on "realism", once they perceived that there was no way that Mubarak could survive, they worked for his ouster. Only Wikileaks will tell, one day, the extent to which Hillary Clinton and Obama must have worked the internet and the phones with all the parties internal and external. There is little doubt that they wanted to create a best case scenario for American interests in Mubarak's successor. For this they needed time and someone else other than the Vice President Suleiman. However, as it "happened" they got the best possible outcome for their interests. After all Mubarak was the military so in some ways we have an interim status quo. In the long term the USA might also have to re -evaluate it's foreign policy of "realism" in the wake of this happening.
ISRAEL
The outcome for Israel is a more uncertain. There is good news and bad news. The good news is that the myth that if you solve the Palestinian crisis there will be nirvana in the Middle East has been conclusively shattered. Many of the countries that are screaming for human rights for the Palestinians may soon find that they are dealing with the same problems with their own electorate. The bad news is that there is an urgency to settle this crisis once and for all. Israel does not need the instability that will ensue if the whole of Palestine gathers in some or other square demanding independence. This would be made worse if Israel once again invaded Gaza, as has been suggested, and confronted the masses there. However, settling the issue means compromise within Israel first and foremost. Compromise means making some Israelis unhappy and no government relishes risking that - especially the wonky Netanyahu fragile coalition. It is now less and less a question of taking your case to the world, especially the USA, and arguing how right you are. There is this new"real politik" for better or for worse. And as the Egyptian situation has shown the quicker you act the better. This so particularly from a position of strength which Israel is in.
It is unlikely that the peace treaty will be reversed between Israel and Egypt but an unresolved Palestinian issue will most likely find sympathy to a much greater extent by any new Egyptian regime.
The first internet revolution has been successful.
To be continued.
No comments:
Post a Comment