OBAMA - WHAT THE LAME DUCK CONGRESS REALLY MEANT

It looked like it was all over bar the shouting - the Democrats had received, in the November elections, by the President's own admission, a "shellacking". Not only had they lost the House of Representatives but had also lost 6 seats in the Senate, where for practical purposes they needed 60 of the 100 votes to pass any legislation. They had had great difficulty in mustering this number with 59 Senators in their caucus and now they had 53. It appeared that the traditional "lame duck" Congressional session, that is held in November and December, would be one big yawn. The latter session is held with the "old" congress members and traditionally is very unproductive. The demoralized Democrats had a long list of legislation to pass. Legislation that the Republicans had blocked over the past two years. The cock of the hoop Republicans stated objective was to "run out the clock" and deny the Obama administration any "successes" with his agenda. They were now one step further in denying him a second term.

ROUND ONE.


The number one priority of the Obama administration was the passage of the tax bill. Obama and the Democrats had campaigned on this issue in the "shellacking" election. There they supported no extension of the Bush tax cuts for the top 2% earning over $250,000. Now there could  be no way that this bill could obtain 60 votes in this new environment as it couldn't before. Then Obama, to the Democrats chagrin, did a deal with the Republicans, inter alia, backing down on the tax increase for the rich. (See blog - Obama - From Yes We Can To Yes We Cave,)  The tax bill that the Republicans had wanted from the get go was now the Administration's policy and subsequently passed with enthusiastic  majority Republican support. The Democratic leader of the House of Representatives and outgoing Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, epitomized Democratic disgust by boycotting the signing of the Bill into law. It appeared that not only would the Democratic agenda not be fulfilled the Republican one was prematurely on it's way.


THE NEXT ROUNDS.


It was in this context that Harry Reid, the Democratic leader of the Senate faced the rest of the lame duck session. Reid had to be exhausted as he had come from nowhere to retain his seat in Nevada where the GOP, Sarah Palin and her candidate had gone full blast to beat him. He was now sitting on a string of legislation that was considered essential to the Obama agenda. The latter had been lingering in the Senate for up to two years unable to overcome the Republican threat of a fillibuster. It would need all the parliamentary and persuasive skills to get bills that couldn't pass in two years passed in less than two months. The irony was that, notwithstanding the Republican success in the elections, most of the issues in these Bills were supported by the electorate.

The Republican leadership, flushed with their success in the wake of the Obama tax cave, made it quite clear that no other legislation would see the light of day as "there was no time to seriously consider all the issues in this short period of time", "that it was sacrilegious to deny the legislature their opportunity to spend the Christmas holidays with their families", "that it would be against the will of the electorate to enact the Democratic agenda after the shellacking", "that with all this legislation coming at them in such a short time they couldn't really properly consider it", etc etc.


What the Republican leadership had not counted on was the disaffection of rank and file Republican Senators. Up till now they had held tight ranks. The latter, however, had obviously been closer to the ground in the election. The central issue was more like, "throw the bums out" and as there were more Democratic bums to throw out the Republicans had "triumphed". The public discontent was largely fueled by the dead economy and unemployment rather than social and international issues


DON'T ASK DON'T TELL.


On the face of it the issue of gays serving openly in the Military was pretty well decided. The issue had jumped through all the hoops needed for acceptance. There had been extensive review and polling in every section of the military. All the military and their brass were pro as well as the Secretary of Defense, a Republican. The polls were for it. Legal challenges in favour of it had been successful - one litigated by the gay Republican party group! However, the Republicans stuck to their mantra - that the election results had shown otherwise and John McCain, in one of his many about faces, needed more and more Senate hearings.

However, endless public displays of the Generals and public opinion polls began to make the Republican argument appear ridiculous. Also the Conservative base of the Republican party were not that vocal in their opposition. So a few Republican Senators defied the leadership and switched and the Democrats received their first flush of victory.

THE START TREATY WITH RUSSIA


This nuclear reduction and inspection treaty was the acknowledged key foreign policy issue of the Obama administration This too had also been repeatedly rejected by the Republicans. This hurdle was even greater for Reid as he needed 67 votes to ratify a Treaty. No Democratic President had ever achieved this in the post war period. Obama desperately needed this ratification for his credibility as a world leader. The Russians had already stated that they could not trust the Americans if this treaty was "rejected". The Republican leadership were as confident as they were adamant about this one. There were plenty of rationalizations as to why it should not be passed. If it wasn't passed Obama would look weak and unpresidential and it was after all the Republican leaders top agenda item to deny him a second term.

Once again everybody who was anybody was rolled out to show support for this treaty. This included every living Secretary of State from Kissinger onwards. Colin Powell and others all argued that it would be a disaster for American foreign policy if this Treaty was not ratified by the US. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee, which includes several Republicans, had heard credible evidence on numerous occasions as to why this Treaty was crucial. So once again the Republican rank and file defied their leadership and Reid garnered 71 votes this time.

THE 9/11 HEALTH CARE BILL.


This Bill dealt with the bizarre situation where the 9/11 first responders'  health care needs were not being met. This included thousands of firemen, policemen and the like.  This circumstance had come about as a result of the dysfunctional health care system. This results in the severely ill heroes  caught in between, workman compensation,insurance, private health care insurance and public insurance agencies and their failure to meet the specialized needs of this group.  The upshot was that severe respiratory conditions, post traumatic stress disorders and cancer treatments were not being funded. This Bill had received short shrift form the Republicans at the beginning of the lame duck session and was unceremoniously blocked from debate. The ostensible reason being the cost. The Bill had been around for years and had originally been introduced by Hillary Clinton when she was in the Senate.

Unlike the other issues the media had virtually ignored it and it was not in the forefront of the public psyche. Reid did not think it was worthwhile using up more precious time on it. Parliamentary procedure is ponderous and takes forever. He also had financial bills to pass to keep the government running.

So the issue was dead until Jon Stewart elected to feature the parlous situation these workers found themselves in, some who even were not getting cancer treatment. (See Blog - John Stewart and Sanity.) He featured the issue in two consecutive programs. He castigated everyone from the Congress to the Media. He berated Fox News, the flagbearer of the Republicans,  who regularly feature the significance of 9/11. The upshot was that every Senator had their phones ringing off the hook to revisit the issue and suddenly it became alive again. A compromise was reached on cost and the Bill was passed without opposition!


OBAMA, THE GOP, THE LAME DUCK SESSION AND THE FUTURE.


Obama has obviously claimed victory for his agenda although he was not out on the stump for any of this. After his deal on taxes he was mum. In addition to all of the above a Food Safety Bill and a Government Funding Bill for three months were passed. Obama has not been credited by the Democratic pundits at all.   Obama is hailing this as a triumph for bipartisanship and maintaining that "We are not doomed to endless gridlock". Again this is not gaining too much traction amongst the Democratic pundits and if credit is being dished out it is to Reid and Pelosi. In fact Reid's role is being even acknowledged by influential Republican Senator Bob Graham who says that Reid "ate the Republicans' lunch."

One thing for certain is that this lame duck session has done Obama no harm. The highly respected CNN commentator, David Gergen, who has advised several Presidents, including Nixon, Ford, Reagan and even Clinton, has hailed these legislative outcomes as "a string of victories" for Obama . Gergen believes that these "victories" have significantly improved Obama's hand maintaining that he has bounced back even more quickly than Bill Clinton after his reverses in mid first term elections.  In support of his view, Gergen maintains - "From my biased perspective, I also thought that the president was more effective because he seemingly played these fights from the background rather than the foreground. We heared about him each day making phone calls, bringing in votes, but we didn't see him consistently on the  podium. It worked!" 

This does seem odd logic, namely, that Obama has more pull in the Republican caucus than the Republican leadership  has and the best way for him to succeed is to keep quiet in public. More likely is that the electorate are sick and tired of the politicians being purely party political on these specific issues and to a lesser or greater extent, the Senate Republican rank and file "got it".  However from the public perspective Obama's tax move also did him no harm. In a CNN opinion poll 59% of respondents maintained that Obama was doing enough to cooperate with the Republicans in Congress.

THE NEXT TWO YEARS.

It is going to be a very interesting two years. The Republican leadership must have learned that they just can't run on being anti - Obama.  Also there is going to be a battle for the heart and soul of the Republican party. What will be the response of Sarah Palin to these "sell outs" in the next Republican primaries? Up to now her biggest successes have been in the Primary Republican elections where she has attempted to purge the party of the compromisers. The Conservative Tea Party that was started as a result of governmental excesses and bail out money still has a 43% favorable rating. Their influence is being acknowledged by new House Speaker Boehner who has decreed that the American Constitution will be read every second day in the house!

Watch Michael Huckabee who is a "softer gentler" Conservative Republican. He could well emerge as Sarah Palin's only serious rival. His conservative credentials are impeccable. He politely continued opposing McCain in the 2008 Primaries till the latter obtained the required number of electoral votes to be the Republican nominee, thereby giving him continued public exposure. He too, like Sarah, has his own Fox News show giving him access to the Republican electorate.  He publically differed with Palin on one of her indefensible rants against Michelle Obama and he was on the Jon Stewart show that led to the recanting of the the 9/11 Responders Health Care Bill. He agreed with Stewart and the next day Fox News were on sides.  He is also playing it really cool saying that Palin is the odds on favourite to win the Republican nomination.

THE REAL FIGHT AND IT'S OUTCOME

Also how is the economy going to play out? Obama's fate hangs largely on that. What legislation is the Republican House of Representatives going to present to the still Democratically controlled Senate? The dispute is going to be about economic philosophies and how the present economic mess is to be resolved. The Lame Duck session Democratic victories have nothing to do with these realities.  In fact the tax bill was the Republican version and the Government spending Bill was significantly pruned. This is where the real fight is going to take place. Even Obama's Health Reform legislation is in jeopardy if funding is blocked.

The bottom line is where is the money going to come from to get this consumer economy going and cut back the debt? The Republicans are not interested in taxing the rich who are earning the greatest proportion of money since the Great Depression - the top 1% earning 23% of money. The Democrats are loath to cut back on programs that largely affect the middle class and poor. The claim that "big money" is more in control of the agenda then ever before doesn't help solve the problem. There is, however a bipartisan Presidential panel that has looked at this problem realistically and has made recommendations.

At the end of the day the outcome of this issue will determine the Obama legacy and even whether he will have a second term or not. Franklin Roosevelt would not have been able to dominate the international and the local scene with the Great Society had he not turned the economy. What would Reagan's legacy be without Reagonomics? To effect this impact Obama is going to have to get into the mix - phone calls behind the scene just won't cut it. He will have to present legislation and fight for it and then compromise on the basis of political reality rather than have an agenda and stick around and hope that Congress will enact legislation to meet it. His actions will decide whether his remarkable activist, intellectual, organizational and oratorial skills will be translated into a transformational period in American history.