SARAH THE PHENOM
Sarah Palin, who has become a public relations phenom, has no such intention. The best she could do was to return to Alaska to do an 8 part reality TV series where we see Sarah en famille, hunting, fishing and shooting - wild life as well as words of wisdom to the world. Sarah, may I call her Sarah - everyone else does, has become the most marketable commodity in the USA. Her most recent book received a 4 and a half million dollar advance and her speaking engagements "honoraria" are up there with ex presidents. She has done Fox ratings no harm and between her and her publicity hungry family she is daily in the headlines.
What is it with this lady who exudes charisma? She was given a massive start by John McCain, who in a Hail Mary attempt to win the Presidency in 2008, made her his Vice Presidential pick. In no time she let it be known that she is not just a pretty face. She is fiercely independent, has views on everything, she is street smart and most importantly has caught the mood of public discontent with her de facto leadership of the Tea Party movement. That more than anything else is what has propelled her to the forefront of the political scene in the US.
On a personal level she is unashamedly feminine. Everything around her personal life just hangs out. Her daughter's out of wedlock child, her decision to give birth to her Down Syndrome child, her man who stands by his woman and all the family problems are there, uncensored for all the world and it's cameras to see. All of this "homeliness", seemingly, adding to her appeal.
In the 2010 midterm elections she endorsed candidates left right and center, (just right politically though). Most significantly she had her greatest success with the Republican Primaries. She ousted many establishment candidates who she considered too moderate. Her success in the General Election with her chosen candidates was mixed however. Some of these candidates that emerged from the Republican Primaries, were objectively, off the wall, in main stream politics. This lead the influential Republican Congressman Bachus to tell the Chamber of Commerce that Palin cost the GOP the senate. Others have argued however that she was the rallying point that won the GOP the house and brought out the base.
SARAH, THE GOP AND THE PRESIDENCY
One thing for certain is that she will not go away. No-one more than her has honed the attributes of entertainment and politics that is so uniquely American and that has proved such a recipe for political success. She is show business personified. Mix that with a broad popular appeal, her ability to put her pulse on "grievances" and skill at being the populist - she ousted the "establishment" Republican Governor in the Alaskan Primary at the outset and ever since then has retained the populist image.
From a GOP point of view she controls the base. She is leaving no room for maneuver and that coupled with name recognition makes her the odds on favourite to win the GOP nomination for the Presidency. If the establishment turns against her they run the risk of splitting the GOP
Her problem, of course, is her manifest ignorance and her perceived prejudices. She shoots from the hip. Rather than say she doesn't know she will give an answer. She is scary but that will not scare away her base, who believes as she does, that her "slips of the tongue" and her "down to earthiness", (a euphemism for ignorance), are blown out of proportion by the liberal media. They believe as she does, for example, when referring to her advocating the backing of "our North Korean allies":
"It seems they couldn't resist the temptation to turn a simple one word slip-of-the-tongue of mine into a major political headline," Palin wrote. "The one word slip occurred yesterday during one of my seven back-to-back interviews wherein I was privileged to speak to the American public about the important, world-changing issues before us."
American elections are really decided by a tiny swing vote - assuming the bases of both parties have delivered. (The latter is not an assumption that always can be taken for granted. It can be in the case of Sarah.) The moderate independents whole sway. They put Obama in power and are currently trending against him. No poll shows Obama with near a 50% approval rating. There is only one poll result that can give Obama any cheer and that is the 8% - 12% lead he has over Palin in a head to head Presidency run off.
America, as we all know, is permanently in "status electionius". The Presidential Primaries start in 13 months time. (A fact not lost on Sarah's choice of venues for her book promotion tour). Much can change on the political and economic fronts that may influence the Congress elections. Nothing, however, will change on the Sarah story and therefore the Presidential race. She will run for President. She will win the Republican nomination. What remains to be seen is whether or not the Republican Party hierachy will support her. I think not. They have to hope that someone will emerge from the shadows to beat her because it is hard to see front runners Huckabee or Romney do it. Again, I think no one can. Her publicity machine rolls on and no-one can catch her up.
The impact of all of this on the GOP's Presidential ambitions can be humongous. It is fair to say that the GOP cherish the Presidency more than they do Congress. At the moment their key strategy as is Sarah's is just anti Obama. Sarah and her Tea Party are a double edge sword that have the potential to untopple their greatest ambition. She can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory - and allow an indecisive, unpopular President in bad economic times to be re-elected.
